Designing Flexibility, Governing Uncertainty: The EU ETS and Post-2030 Climate Policy Architecture

The EU Commission has proposed a reform of the EU ETS that is currently debated and warrants further analysis and discussion. The two sessions on Monday afternoon explore the implications of this proposal. The first session looks at analysts’ projections of the price impacts of the reform, with a focus on the development of the supply-demand balance until the early 2030s. In the second session a draft of the upcoming assessment of the reform by researchers of the Ariadne project is presented and discussed. The guiding question of the assessment is what the implications are for the next comprehensive review, and when this review will likely take place.

Europe is reconsidering how it plans, finances and tracks its energy and climate transition. As part of the forthcoming revision of the Governance Regulation, the European Commission is exploring a more streamlined system in which cross-sectoral and sector-specific KPIs could help monitor implementation, identify investment needs and determine progress towards long-term objectives.
This raises questions that go well beyond indicator selection. What should count as meaningful progress? Which indicators provide early warning of delivery gaps? How can Europe reduce reporting burdens while maintaining transparency, comparability and accountability? And how can evidence trigger learning, investment and corrective action rather than simply produce another dashboard?

The European Climate Law (Regulation (EU) 2021/1119) allows for an adequate contribution of international credits to the EU climate target 2040. Up to five percent of the overall ninety percent GHG emissions reductions until 2040 could be delivered by projects in countries outside the EU. The Paris Agreement provides a skeleton for the transfer of those credits on international level; on European level, the European Commission must adopt respective rules based on the guidelines in Art. 4(5) of the European Climate Law. This session explores the overall, layered legal framework for the contribution of international credits to the EU climate target 2040. It is based on a study by the Stiftung Umweltenergierecht on the topic, and invites expert guests, as well as the interested audience, to discuss its findings as well as open questions.